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The effects of terrorism on the Polish tourist demand are still evident

by GilbertoZangari on May 9th, 2016

Data source: PZOT – Merlin X (Sabre)

The last post (29th March 2016) has shown the strong impact of the terrorist attacks on the Polish tourism demand managed by TOs and travel agencies.

Not only the volume of the holidaymaker flows is affected but mainly the  destinations of these flows. The Poles for next holidays are clearly looking for locations where they can feel more safe, avoiding the countries connected in some way with the terrorist attacks.

About 2 months have passed from the last post and I’m curious to check if the situation depicted by the PZOT data was temporary or it will affect the current holiday season.

According the last report, issued the 3rd week of last April by PZOT – Merlin X, the situation is only slightly changed compared with February.

The overall demand of packaged trips is still negative and stable: -7,5%  in front of the -7,8% of the end of February 2016. But frankly speaking this data isn’t totally unexpected and in my opinion it isn’t totally connected with terrorism.

We haven’t to forget, in fact, that the Polish demand of organized holidays has grown in the last two years of about the 30% and therefore an year of consolidation was easily predictable. Not by chance the demand, week by week, shows violent fluctuations as if was looking for a new equilibrium.

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A new equilibrium looks like achieved by the rank of destination countries as it emerged after the terrorist attacks of November 2015. After 6 weeks from the last post the only noticeable changes are the ones between Spain and Greece, that have switched their positions and Albania which has climbed 6 positions in the list of most sold countries. Even the percentages of changes are remained more or less the same.

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Therefore, unless big shocks generated by “strong” events, (terrorist attacks in untouched countries, significant reduction of the rate of change of Polish currency, etc.) the situation looks like stable…

Time by time we will check the evolution of Polish market and we will inform you.

Author: Gilberto Zangari

Feel free to report the previous post but please quotes: OUTgoing POLAND, The Polish Tourist Workshop

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