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The tourist market has no mercy

by GilbertoZangari on July 4th, 2016

Data source: PZOT – Merlin X (Sabre)

In the first days of the two roaring months of this summer 2016, it’s interesting to check what happens  in the share of Polish tourism demand, managed by Tour Operators.

The most relevant data is the constant decrease of the sales of tourist packages compared with the same period of the last year. In January, Merlin X system (Sabre) estimates a -4,9%, the negative performance is decreased until now doubling the data of January.  The Figure 1 shows clearly what’s happened.

This decrease can be explained in three ways, not necessarily alternatives: the Polish market has sought an adjustment after two years of rapid growth, the terrorist attacks have pushed the Polish tourists to seek safer destinations and often “safe” is a synonym of “near” and finally we haven’t to forget that in the last months the Polish Zloty has lost about the 10% respect the Euro.

The negative trend of tourist package sales is mainly connected with the crisis of Turkey and Egypt, the two leading destinations of Polish tourist demand of the previous years.

The first Country shows a slight recover starting from April when it achieved the lowest point. Now the decrease is around the 60%, it means that 2/3 of the previous polish tourists have abandoned this country.

The crisis of Egypt haven’t achieved yet the turning point: from the -64% of the beginning of the year now the index is -74%:  3 out 4 Polish tourists have chosen other destinations.

The tourist market has no mercy: if some destination loses visitors for sure someone else will benefit from.

Spain, Italy, Croatia and Bulgaria have mainly benefitted of crisis of two Muslim countries, while  Greece has maintained, more or less, the same quantity of tourists of the last year.  Spain and Italy have constantly increased the number of visitors of 50% during the first semester of 2016.

Bulgaria started the 2016 in January with a stunning increase of 200%, but week by week this Country has lost points and now is at the same level of attractiveness of Italy and Spain.

An opposite path has been followed by Croatia, that started at the same level of Italy and Spain and week by week has increased its market share.

The rank of the most visited countries isn’t changed significantly from the last post.

The last remark is dedicated to a curiosity that we will analyze deeply in the future. Look at the following figure**, which shows the total sales of tourist packages week by week.

After the week 23rd  (14th of June) sales of tour packages follow a pattern of behavior completely different from that of the previous year. It does not seem to be affected by the seasonality, sales do not show the traditional summer peak. This situation deserves further analysis in a future post.

 

Author: Gilberto Zangari

Feel free to report the previous post but please quotes: OUTgoing POLAND, The Polish Tourist Workshop

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